1. Bond Yields at Record Low: Relative to BBB Bonds, CRE Looks Historically Cheap

    Posted on July 3, 2020

    Bond Yields at Record Low: Relative to BBB bonds, CRE looks historically cheap The Fed was prepared to move quickly, applying hard lessons learned during the financial crisis 10 years ago to support credit markets during the economic shock of the pandemic.  These efforts complement pre-CoVid trends of structurally low bond yields that reflected relatively […]

  2. Household Incomes Up Despite the Pandemic: Headline Income Numbers Mask Underlying Economic Weakness; High Frequency Data May Be A Head Fake.

    Posted on June 26, 2020

    Household Incomes Up Despite the Pandemic: Headline income numbers mask underlying economic weakness; high frequency data may be a head fake. Swift and unprecedented fiscal stimulus through the CARES act has boosted household incomes and put a floor under consumption…at least in the short term.  The combination of $270 billion in one-time stimulus checks and […]

  3. Limited Parallels: Unprecedented Economic Disruption, But The Pandemic Has Limited Parallels With The Last Recession…Especially For Commercial Real Estate

    Posted on April 21, 2020

    Limited Parallels: Unprecedented economic disruption, but the pandemic has limited parallels with the last recession…especially for commercial real estate

  4. The Global Pandemic: Unprecedented Economic Disruption Is Met With An Unprecedented Policy Response. CRE Should Hold Up Relatively Well

    Posted on April 14, 2020

    The Global Pandemic: Unprecedented economic disruption is met with an unprecedented policy response. CRE should hold up relatively well Unprecedented Economic Shutdown Current job losses are an intentional transfer of payroll from private to public sector – in the short term, incomes are more important than unemployment Traditional econometric models are less valuable in this […]

  5. The Great Moderation: Persistently Low Interest Rate Environment Expected, Supporting Asset Values

    Posted on October 9, 2019

    The Great Moderation: Persistently low interest rate environment expected, supporting asset values Interest rates in the U.S. have been falling steadily since the 1980s, and real rates have been near zero during much of the expansion following the GFC.  Notably, interest rates peaked during the early 80s, when the Baby Boomers were entering the work […]

  6. Urbanization Accelerates: Growth In The Urban Cores Has Accelerated, Upping The Density Of Young Aspirational And Older High-Income Households In The U.S.’s Top Cities.

    Posted on January 22, 2019

    Urbanization Accelerates: Growth in the urban cores has accelerated, upping the density of young aspirational and older high-income households in the U.S.’s top cities. Reflecting both greater economic opportunity and lifestyle choices of the “demographic barbell” of Baby Boomers and Millennials, population gains, especially among young, college-educated workers[1], accelerated in the hubs of U.S. cities […]